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Grains & Livestock, Opposite Directions, but Adhering to the Same ONE44 Fibonacci Rules and Guidelines.![]() Grains/Livestock (ZSU25) (ZCZ25) (ZWU25) (LEQ25) (HEQ25) The best way to tell if a market will keep the current trend is by watching the 38.2% retracement, The Charts in this weeks Premium Members update are key to this analysis.
A market that is in an extremely strong trend (up, or down) will only set back 23.6% and then quickly go for a new high/Low,
On the up trends we have Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. Every setback since the bottom on 9/9/24 in Cattle has held either a 23.6%, or 38.2% retracement. On 11/1/24 and 12/18/24 it held a 23.6% retracement and on 3/4/25 and 4/9/25 it held a 38.2% retracement. The most recent setback held a combination of .23.6% back to the contract low and 38.2% back to the 4/9/25 low at 280.30 before going on to new highs. In Hogs, once the market turned higher from the 87.55 major Gann square (in the nearby contract it started from a 78.6% retracement) the setbacks on 5/1/25 and 5/27/25 held 23.6% retracements and quickly went on to new highs. The rally was stopped by a 78.6% retracement on the continuation chart on 6/17/25 at 113.20, the setback from there is currently sitting on a 23.6% retracement back to the contract low. The long term trend remains down in Soybeans, Corn and Wheat based on the retracements as well. We still think this is building a base for the next Bull market, but it is going to take a little longer based on the retracements that are keeping it down. What we are seeing is a lot more movement between 61.8% and 78.6% retracements. ONE44 61.8% rule,
ONE44 78.6% rule,
In Soybeans the high on 2/5/25 at 1094.00 was turned lower by a 38.2% retracement keeping the Intermediate trend negative. Since then we have seen a failure to make a new low at a 78.6% retracement on 4/7/25 and the rally from it hit 78.6% the other way on 5/14/25 and again on 6/16/25. The current setback has hit 78.6% the other way again at 1005.00, this will be a key level for the week. In Dec. Corn the high on 2/19/25 hit 23.6% on the continuation chart at 475.00 and the 478.50 major Gann square keeping the long term trend negative. The low on 3/31/25 held 78.6% at 439.00 and that sent it 78.6% back the other way on 4/16/25. Each rally after that could only get 38.2% back on 6/22/25 and then 23.6% on 6/20/25. Last week's high hit 38.2% at 440.00 and that sent it to a new low for the move. The high on 2/18/25 in Wheat hit 38.2% at 637.00 and that kept the long term trend negative. A few rally attempts on 4/11/25, 5/21/25 and 6/9/25 failed to get above a 38.2% retracement keeping the short term trend negative. The high on 6/20/25 fell well short of 38.2% at 612.00 and 61.8% back to the 2/18/25 high at 598.00 and the current low hit 78.6% at 537.00. We will see if this is the bottom of the next Bull move, or it only gets 78.6% back the other way. . ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares. If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member. You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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