With Bitcoin (BTCUSD) prices up 22% over the past month and Coinbase (COIN) set to join the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) next week in a milestone for the crypto industry, investors are also turning their attention back to favorite MicroStrategy (MSTR). 

The company, with roots in enterprise software, repositioned its focus to a Bitcoin Treasury strategy in recent years and rebranded as just “Strategy” earlier in 2025. Its executives are all top-tier marketers in their own right. 

Retail investors have loved the ride, seeing gains of more than 1,400% in the last two years. Wall Street analysts are also growing increasingly bullish on the company, and the team at H.C. Wainwright just issued a massive $480 price target on shares. Here’s what’s behind this price action. 

Why Some Analysts Are Growing Bullish on Strategy

Looking at Strategy’s five-year chart below, it’s clear that long-term believers in Bitcoin have benefited from owning shares in this tech company. Shares of MSTR stock have gone from roughly $10 apiece five years ago to roughly $420 today, and this recent analyst price target of $480 suggests 15% upside is still possible from here.

Of course, given the scale of Strategy’s share price appreciation, with shares up 3,200% in the past five years, anything is possible. And as we’ve seen with Bitcoin prices, volatility can indeed be the best friend of long-term investors.

By borrowing massive amounts of capital in the bond market to reinvest into Bitcoin, Strategy’s balance sheet is effectively a mix of U.S. Dollar-denominated debt and Bitcoin-denominated assets. What this means is that as the value of Bitcoin in dollar terms rises, investors stand to benefit.

Of course, if the long-term trend higher in Bitcoin prices does eventually break down, Strategy’s leveraged position on Bitcoin prices could work against investors. But for now, it's been a rather steady ride higher for those who have stuck with Michael Saylor and his almost fervent faith in the value of Bitcoin as a Treasury asset. 

What to Make of Strategy’s Balance Sheet?

I think the key point for investors considering Strategy has to be the company's balance sheet. H.C Wainwright analysts point out that Strategy has indeed raised more than $25 billion to buy a stack of Bitcoin that’s now worth closer to $50 billion. That’s great. 

However, if the company’s debt load exceeds a psychological threshold the market isn’t willing to stomach, it’s plausible that the company’s share price appreciation profile could slow. 

In my view, the company’s balance sheet does not look stretched, and there’s a solid argument to be made that Strategy has done a good job of becoming a tool for investors looking for liquid access to leveraged Bitcoin. 

That said, I’m always wary of the potential for a significant drawdown in the price of Bitcoin, which could very quickly erode this balance sheet strength, particularly if Saylor continues to acquire Bitcoin at his current rate or ramp up buying activity. 

What Do Analysts Think?

Aside from the aforementioned analysts at H.C. Wainwright, most other analysts are also bullish on Strategy. As the graph below shows, the consensus “Strong Buy” rating for Strategy has remained in place due to a still-positive forecast for Bitcoin. However, as the macro environment has become increasingly uncertain, the aggregate rating has dropped from a 4.91 to a 4.62 out of 5 over the last three months. 

In my view, the consensus $524.17 price target on Strategy is likely a little aggressive, given the plethora of downside risks that could materialize. Saylor and his team have done a good job of buying Bitcoin when it has been cheap. But I’m not among those who believe that “price go up” is a strategy that can be relied on forever. 

As mentioned, any sort of drawdown in the price of Bitcoin of more than 50%, and the show could be over for Strategy. That’s a risky proposition right now in my view.