“Shootin’ The Bull”

End of Day Market Recap

by Christopher Swift

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10/17/2024

Live Cattle:​

The cure for higher prices is higher prices.  Beef continues to move higher in price.  Therefore, I can only assume that further rationing is taking place by lowering the slaughter, decreasing beef production, raising beef prices. I believe this most recent $20.00 increase in box prices will go a long way in testing the resilience of the consumer that so many bullish cattlemen have relied on during the higher prices.  The up trend has been broken with technical indicators now pointing down or turning sharply.  I think it time to prepare for a long winter of extensive volatility and price expanse. Traders produced a lengthy sideways trade from the sharply lower trade on Monday of this week.  Today, they broke to the down side, leading me to believe this is the path of least resistance for the moment.  As I can't foresee where consumers will have more disposable or discretionary income, anytime soon, and boxes $20.00 higher in just over two weeks, it appears the industry is trying very hard to reduce consumer demand. 

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Feeder Cattle:​

The feeder cattle futures have an initial decline, a correction of, and new lows.  Were today's high to be exceeded, I will be looking for an opportunity to complete any further marketing's left unsold.  Were today's low to be exceeded, I will anticipate a $5.00 to $8.00 move lower.  ​​

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​Hogs:

​Hogs were mixed today with the index down $.23 at $83.85

4.08.​

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Corn:  

​Wheat was able to bounce as corn and beans selling slowed.  I continue to expect corn and beans to trade within the current price range, with wheat expected to move higher. 

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Energy:

​Energy saw a violent trade today as further escalation in the middle east continues.  The precision strike that killed a Hamas leader sent crude down a dollar in a minute and back up a dollar in two minutes.  A large price range was traversed a couple of times today, but after the smoke cleared, not much is able to be gleamed from the price action.  At present, I continue to recommend booking fuel needs, forward contracting fuel needs, or buying call options on crude oil.  This is a sales solicitation. ​​

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Bonds:

Bonds were sharply lower as economic reports continue to reflect persistent inflation.  As I hear over and over of how taxed the consumer is of inflation, it appears that only government spending could help to keep some people spending other peoples money. ​​​​​​​​​

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This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.